OPEC+ loses market influence as China cuts crude imports
Six months after the Iran war began, OPEC+ has seen its market influence weaken as the conflict shut the Strait of Hormuz and damaged energy infrastructure in several producers, constraining exports. Reuters calculations using IEA data show OPEC+ accounted for about 40% of global output in July, down from over 48% before the conflict, with a four to five percentage point decline linked to the UAE exit from OPEC. Core OPEC+ producers produced only a quarter of world output in July. At the same time, China bought roughly 400 million fewer barrels versus last year, helping cap prices and act as the swing demand center.
OPEC+ market share fell to about 40% in July.
Context
The Iran war has closed major export routes and damaged energy infrastructure. China sharply reduced crude imports and refining output. Markets may stay balanced if Chinese demand stays weak or change if Hormuz reopens.
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