Risk model identifies more under-50 women at breast cancer risk

4 min read

Analysis of 1,258 women from the Breast Cancer Now Generations Study (2004–2011) found that current NICE family-history referral criteria would refer only 1.4% of under-50 women and identify 4.4% of those who go on to develop breast cancer within ten years, missing up to 95% of future cases. Using the multifactorial Boadicea model, researchers would classify 26.5% of under-50 women as above-population risk and identify almost 35% of those who develop cancer within a decade, and eight times as many future cases overall. Experts say the findings imply possible earlier detection, prevention opportunities, and significant resource implications for the NHS.

Current NICE criteria miss most under-50 women who later develop breast cancer.