Risk model identifies more under-50 women at breast cancer risk
Analysis of 1,258 women from the Breast Cancer Now Generations Study (2004–2011) found that current NICE family-history referral criteria would refer only 1.4% of under-50 women and identify 4.4% of those who go on to develop breast cancer within ten years, missing up to 95% of future cases. Using the multifactorial Boadicea model, researchers would classify 26.5% of under-50 women as above-population risk and identify almost 35% of those who develop cancer within a decade, and eight times as many future cases overall. Experts say the findings imply possible earlier detection, prevention opportunities, and significant resource implications for the NHS.
Current NICE criteria miss most under-50 women who later develop breast cancer.
Context
Researchers analysed data from 1,258 women in a long-term study. They found current NICE criteria miss many under-50 women who later develop breast cancer. Policy review and work on feasibility could follow in the health system.
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