Research finds possible military insider trading on Polymarket
A nonprofit analysis of Polymarket International transactions found signs that more than 150 trader wallets may have used inside U.S. military information to place highly successful bets. Anti‑Corruption Data Collective identified 556 ‘Orcas’ and 152 military-focused wallets that together made roughly $8 million and averaged a 97.2% win rate, based on settled markets through May 5. The report says visible blockchain wagers appear to attract large copycat whales and automated bots, which could amplify insider signals. The findings have drawn attention from regulators and renew debate about identity rules and limits on sensitive prediction markets.
Blockchain-based public wagers may reveal military secrets to outsiders
Context
Polymarket settles trades on a public blockchain so wagers are visible. Researchers analyzed settled markets through May 5 and found concentrated, successful bets on military outcomes. Regulators and platforms could next consider identity…
The full analysis
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