U.S. homicide rate set to hit historic low in 2026
Data from the Council on Criminal Justice show reported homicides across 30 cities were 18% lower in the first half of 2026 versus the same period in 2025, a drop that equates to 215 fewer deaths. CCJ estimated that the U.S. homicide rate in 2025 fell to about 4 per 1,000 people, which would be the lowest since 1900 if FBI data confirm it; the new midyear update suggests further improvement. Reported homicides are 51% below the first-half 2022 peak and 31% below first-half 2019, with most sample cities declining while a few, including Austin, saw increases. Carjacking, residential burglary and motor vehicle theft also declined, and CCJ urges research-backed policy responses.
Reported homicides fell 18% in the first half of 2026.
Context
The Council on Criminal Justice compared crime data from 30 cities and found declines since 2022. If FBI data confirm 2025 totals near four per 1,000, 2026 could set a new low. Communities may focus on research-backed strategies next.
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