OPEC+ holds October output target as influence wanes
OPEC+ decided to leave its October production target unchanged, a move that barely moved markets because analysts had long expected a pause. Rystad Energy's Jorge Leon said the group has finished unwinding 2023 voluntary cuts and now faces a surplus risk as exports normalise, while Rosneft's Igor Sechin argued China has become the main swing factor after cutting crude imports by roughly 5.5 million barrels a day and holding about 1.4 billion barrels of stocks. Physical exports remain constrained by Strait of Hormuz disruptions, making tanker insurance rates and naval escorts more influential than quotas. Attention now shifts to month-end audits and 2027 quota talks.
OPEC+ held output steady amid weakening physical market influence
Context
OPEC+ restored 2023 cuts and then paused new supply changes. The UAE left OPEC on May 1 and China sharply cut imports during Iran war disruptions. Officials will audit member capacity by month-end before 2027 quota talks, and a Hormuz…
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