Google AI enables controllers to issue binding contrail altitude instructions
The UK launched a £5 million Operation Blue Skies trial that gives Google AI contrail forecasts to NATS controllers, who can issue binding altitude clearances to avoid ice-supersaturated regions (ISSRs). The consortium includes the Met Office, universities, and Contrails.org, with independent verification by Imperial College and Cambridge; Google contributes in-kind. Prior research shows 2–3 percent of flights cause about 80 percent of contrail warming, and AI forecasts hit ISSRs about 80 percent of the time but carry a roughly 30 percent false alarm ratio. The two-winter trial will test operational safety, forecast improvement, and policy relevance.
Controllers will use AI forecasts to issue binding altitude clearances.
Context
Scientists found contrails cause a large share of aviation warming. Past trials put route decisions with pilots or dispatchers and had low uptake. This trial moves authority to controllers and could inform regulator decisions next.
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