Sberbank forecasts limited onshore crypto trading after legalization
Sberbank, Russia's largest lender, told TASS it expects roughly 3.5–4 trillion rubles will trade on newly regulated Russian crypto exchanges in the first year after trading rules take effect on September 1, about 20% of a Finance Ministry estimate of 18 trillion rubles annual crypto transactions. The bank projects growth to about 4.75–5.25 trillion by 2028 and 7.5 trillion by 2029. The law limits retail trading, delays licensing until July 1, 2027, and allows only bitcoin, ether and USDT for retail, so much activity may stay offshore while banks like Sberbank build custody, exchange and lending services.
Legalization will shift about one fifth of crypto volume onshore.
Context
Russia will legalize crypto trading on September 1 under new rules. The law limits retail access and gives firms until July 1, 2027 to get licenses. Onshore volume may rise slowly as licenses and approvals progress.
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